Trans-Atlantic Steel Tensions, Round Two The ink is barely dry on the new 15 % “mini-deal” between Washington and Brussels, yet one clause overshadows the good news: the United States is still slapping a 50 % tariff on every tonne of EU steel and aluminium—twice the rate in force just a few months ago.

How hard does that hit European producers?

• 3.8–4 million tonnes of steel that normally sail from EU ports to America are suddenly priced out of the market.

• About $2.8 billion in aluminium exports are equally stranded.

• For most grades of flat steel, the landed EU price now clears the US dock 15–20 % above domestic Midwest levels.

• Result: 70–90 % of current EU shipments lose money overnight, forcing cancellations and cargo re-routing to Turkey, MENA and Asia—regions already drowning in surplus coil.

HRC arbitrage in plain numbers

1. Pre-tariff reality

   • Land a tonne of Italian hot-rolled coil (HRC) in the US for roughly $684.

   • Sell it into a Midwest spot market paying $950–1 000.

   • $282 gross margin for the EU mill—easy business.

2. With the 50 % duty

   • The same coil now lands at roughly $1 026 after the tariff.

   • Midwest buyers still pay $950–1 000.

   • Margin swings to -$60 (give or take)—trade shuts down.

3. If the duty dropped to 15 %

   • Landed cost falls to about $787.

   • Midwest price holds near $950–1 000.

   • Margin jumps back to +$179—exports viable again until quota caps bite.

A likely pivot toward green steel

Washington has hinted the 50 % hammer “could fall later”—especially if Brussels is willing to talk climate quotas and low-carbon standards. Forward-looking EU mills are already:

• Accelerating hydrogen-DRI and EAF investments to produce premium “green steel.”

• Courting US automakers and construction buyers that are willing to pay a surcharge for verifiable low-CO₂ sheet.

• Banking on the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—effective 1 January 2026—to secure a protected home market while they bid for low-carbon access deals in the US.

MATERIA’s take – turning volatility into advantage

Trade headlines move margins by triple-digit dollars in the space of a tweet. MATERIA’s Patchwork™ market-intelligence platform stitches together live tariff news, CBAM price curves, freight spreads and green-premium signals into a single, actionable dashboard.

• Exporters see exactly when a duty drop reopens the arbitrage window—before competitors reload tonnage.

• Policy teams stress-test carbon-border scenarios in real time.

• Investors spot which steelmakers will capture dual premiums in two carbon-constrained markets.

In a world where policy shocks and carbon costs collide by the hour, Patchwork™ keeps you one decision ahead.