On 15 July 2026, the European Commission changed the purpose of its import-monitoring tool. The system launched in 2025 had focused on goods redirected into the European Union after tariffs or restrictions blocked other markets. It is now called the import barometer and is designed to identify sustained increases in imports at decreasing unit values, a pattern the Commission associates with global industrial overcapacity.

A CN8 code appearing in the barometer is not subject to a new duty and does not establish dumping, subsidisation, injury or undervaluation. The Commission uses it to identify import patterns that EU industry may investigate further with evidence for a trade-defence case.

What the import barometer measures

The dashboard uses Eurostat customs import data at eight-digit Combined Nomenclature (CN8) level, starting in 2023. It covers imports from all non-EU origins and is refreshed quarterly once Eurostat has a complete quarter. The Commission chose Eurostat rather than the more current surveillance dataset because Eurostat data has been cleaned and harmonised for trade-defence analysis.

The barometer looks for codes with imports rising over time while unit values fall. Its unit value is a simple aggregate: import value divided by net mass. That measure can indicate price pressure, particularly across a large and sustained flow, but it cannot describe the specification, contractual terms, delivery basis or quality of an individual shipment.

The published methodology sets the volume-growth threshold at 5.2% per year, the median annual growth for 2023-2025. It also applies a minimum annual import-value threshold and requires a decrease in unit values. Results change as new quarters enter the calculation and as customs data is corrected. A code that is not listed can still be raised by EU producers if they provide evidence of injury.

It is not the trade-diversion monitoring tool

The barometer and the Commission's trade-diversion monitoring tool examine different import patterns. The trade-diversion tool (available in CIRCA-BC library) follows possible rerouting towards the EU after tariffs or other restrictions close or restrict another market. The barometer looks for a longer pattern: import growth combined with falling aggregate unit values.

A CN8 flow can therefore be relevant to one tool without appearing in the other. A short-term rerouting of cargoes after a foreign tariff may not meet the barometer's sustained-growth criteria. Conversely, a product code may meet the barometer's criteria without a single identifiable diversion event. Importers should use the two datasets for their respective questions: immediate route changes in one case, and longer-term trade-defence exposure in the other.

From a flagged code to a trade-defence measure

The barometer does not replace the legal tests for safeguards, anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures. Safeguards require increased imports and serious injury, or threat of serious injury, to EU producers of directly competing goods. A safeguard normally applies to all origins and may be designed as a tariff-rate quota, with duty charged after the quota is exhausted.

Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases work differently. They are origin-specific and require evidence that imports are dumped or benefit from countervailable subsidies, as well as evidence of injury. A fall in the barometer's aggregate unit value cannot prove either point. It may, however, help an EU producer decide where to test a complaint and which origins to analyse.

Once the necessary safeguard evidence is available, an investigation can be initiated within a month. Provisional safeguard measures may apply for up to 200 days, while definitive safeguards normally follow within nine months, subject to an 11-month maximum. An importer with a code under visible pressure has time to review sourcing and contracts, but should not treat a barometer flag as a forecast of a particular duty rate.

The customs-value question is separate

The barometer is built from customs-derived trade data, but it is not a customs-valuation system. Its published unit values are aggregates across imports. They are not the price actually paid or payable for a particular transaction and do not account for commercial details that can legitimately explain why one shipment is priced differently from another.

Article 140 of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2015/2447 allows customs authorities to ask for additional information where they have reasonable doubts that the declared value represents the total amount paid or payable. If the importer does not dispel those doubts, the authority may reject the transaction-value method and apply a secondary valuation method.

The Court of Justice addressed the role of statistical comparisons in C-291/15, EURO 2004. Hungary. It held that customs could use an unreasonably low declared value compared with the statistical average for similar goods as a basis for doubt, where the importer did not provide the additional evidence requested. The case confirms that invoices and payment records alone may not settle the issue if the surrounding commercial evidence is missing.

No Commission material reviewed for this article says that the import barometer feeds national customs valuation-risk engines. It provides a transparent view of the CN8 codes and origin patterns attracting trade-policy attention. Where the commercial price for a flagged code differs materially from market comparisons, the importer should be able to explain the difference through the terms of sale, product specification, quality, Incoterms, freight, rebates and payment trail.

Procurement and customs teams can monitor the relevant CN8 codes in each quarterly release, compare the sourcing pattern with the Commission's published trend, and retain transaction evidence before clearance. That separates the risk of a future trade-defence case from the evidence customs may require for a current import declaration.